Hack the weekend: will Brighton surprise Tottenham for the second time in two months?
That's why Flashscore always on Fridays brings, in cooperation with a team of analysts from the Czech data company 11Hacks, analyses of matches in which the numbers may lead to an (un)expected result.
Tottenham vs Brighton - Saturday 16:00 CET
You may remember the last meeting between these two attack-minded teams. It took place at the Amex Stadium in late December and for the neutral it was football chaos in the best sense of the word. Brighton dominated the game with a 4-2 scoreline and even without his two penalties, both teams produced high xG (2.71 - 2.19 for the winners). Something similar could happen this weekend.
Tottenham will take on their opponents with a fully-fit playmaker James Maddison, who against Brighton's high block will have plenty of opportunities to send penetrating passes from deep in the field as well as perpendicular passes from central areas near the whitewash to his running teammates. So once again there will be plenty of quick transitions into attack and shots from repressed situations, a style of play that does not suit Brighton and regularly allows a large number of dangerous chances from it.
However, Roberto De Zerbi's charges also have a few effective weapons in their arsenal. For example, they can be expected to visibly dominate in the air. Brighton have the highest success rate in the Premier League in offensive headers, while Tottenham, on the contrary, have the second worst when defending them. Only Bournemouth's players are worse in this regard.
The superiority should also show in standard situations, from which Spurs face dangerous shots very often. Passes from Pascal Gross' to Lewis Dunk, Jan Paul van Hecke or both strikers are not something that any team defends easily. Moreover, the Spurs are the worst team in the defensive third at winning loose balls, a discipline in which the opposition excels in the attacking third.
It is worth mentioning that in the last match Spurs were handicapped by the absence of defenders Romero and Van de Ven, who are fit for the upcoming match. There are also the potential returns of Yves Bissouma and Son Heung-Min. Even so, it wouldn't be a complete surprise if the visitors manage to score and score again.
Go Ahead Eagles vs Zwolle - Sunday 12:15 CET
Eighth-placed PEC Zwolle visit sixth-placed Go Ahead Eagles on Sunday in the Eredivisie and can close to within one point of their opponents if they win. And their chances will not be low at all, because according to mathematical models evaluating the quality of the created and allowed goal opportunities, both teams are very similar in performance.
Moreover, Zwolle have been playing well recently. It has scored in the previous five league games, including against Ajax, Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam. And in all three games they played on the opponent's pitch. To make matters worse, the Eagles have to deal with the absence of two key players.
Injured Belgian Philippe Rommens is one of the Eredivisie's best defensive midfielders on the ball and can set up a high amount of chances for his teammates, both from set pieces and standard situations. In addition, attacking midfielder Willum Willumsson will serve a suspension red card penalty. The Eagles' third busiest player has already scored six goals so far this season and, like Rommens, is an important creative link in the line-up. An analysis of chance creation in the final third shows that Zwolle should be a decent opponent going forward at least.
In the aerial battle, they are one of the most dominant teams in the league, which is reflected in its game plan. The biggest strengths are very effective and tall strikers from the side and from deep or long balls down the left. And the Eagles regularly allow a huge volume of chances from crosses.
Standard Liege vs Leuven - Saturday 16:00
Although in the sample of the whole season these are a pair of evenly matched teams, separated in the table by only one point in favour of the home side Standard Liege, their current game state is quite different. While the home side have been waiting for a league win for nine long matches, Leuven have not lost for five games, during which time they also took a valuable scalp against Genk.
A welcome boost for the team from Leuven will be not only the return of Icelandic international winger Jon Dagur Thorsteinsson, who missed the last round due to a card penalty, but also the fact that the injury to captain Siebe Schrijvers will not be so serious that it will prevent him from starting the upcoming match. Lutych, on the other hand, will continue to miss talented stopper Nathan Ngoy.
Leuven are a team that has one of the highest attacking header success rates in the league and are dangerous from both crosses and standard situations. Liege, on the other hand, are very vulnerable to both of these. All of this is compounded by the fact that while Leuven's crosses work, they have great difficulty defending them.