Hack the Weekend: Fulham, Bochum and Alaves all have enough to pull off a surprise
Brentford vs Fulham - Saturday, 16:00 CET
Brentford managed to preserve their league status for the third season in a row despite last weekend's loss at Everton. The team, led by popular coach Thomas Frank, has been mowed down by several injuries in the defence, which has been reflected in the number of goals conceded. After deducting penalties, they average 1.66 per game. Only newcomers Sheffield United, Luton and Burnley are doing worse in this metric.
Although the team will benefit greatly from the return of centre-back Ethan Pinnock and defensive midfielder Christian Norgaard at the very end of the season, it is still true that the London clash with Fulham has no clear favourite. In terms of the quality of scoring opportunities created and conceded, the two teams are very similar and should have registered the same amount of points this calendar year.
While Brentford didn't assert themselves very well against the resolute Toffees, Saturday's match should be significantly more offensive. Both opponents are capable of launching dangerous breaks from their low blocks, but they can also showcase nice combinations in successive attacks. Since the home team is very active in pressing and attacking quickly after losing the ball, perhaps coach Marco Silva can identify how to use this tactical intent to his advantage.
The biggest weapon of the visitors will be the brilliant Brazilian, Rodrigo Muniz. Scorer of nine league goals this season, he maintains a great average of 0.49 expected goals and almost four shots per game. This frequent shooting should pay off for Fulham, especially because goalkeeper Mark Flekken is statistically among the worst goalkeepers in the Premier League.
Union Berlin vs Bochum - Sunday, 15:30 CET
Almost the perfect definition of a six-pointer. 14th-placed Union and 15th-placed Bochum have identical points with three rounds to go in the Bundesliga, with the team from Berlin only one goal better off on goal difference. Both teams have only a two-point lead over Mainz, who are playing well and are currently in a position to qualify for the relegation play-off. The emotions will be high in this match.
While Union have picked up just two points in their last five matches, Bochum have been boosted by the recent arrival of new coach Heiko Butscher, who was only promoted from his position as youth coach in mid-April. The team has since played evenly matched games against Heidenheim and Wolfsburg, after which they defeated ninth-placed Hoffenheim in an attractive contest. All in all, four valuable points and a much happier outlook.
Both teams should be higher up the table in terms of their performances. Currently, their tally stands at 30 points, but according to mathematical models, they should have eight more. In both cases, the main reason is the profligate finishing of their players - Union are 14 goals behind their expected goals while Bochum are 13.
Union might be the clear favourite with the bookmakers this weekend, but by all accounts, it will be a close affair to say the least.
Valencia vs Alaves - Sunday, 18:30 CET
With five rounds to go in LaLiga, home side Valencia are right on the cusp of the European places, sitting just two points behind seventh-placed Betis. It was against Betis who Valencia lost to two weeks ago before another defeat to Barcelona last time out. However, according to the bookmakers, 'Los Ches' will return to winning ways this weekend against 12th-placed Alaves.
It won't be that easy though, with goalkeeper and one of the team's biggest pillars Giorgi Mamardashvili suspended after a red card against Barcelona. The Georgian international is one of the best goalkeepers in the Spanish league, and in the metric that shows how many goals he has prevented with his saves, he is on a similar level to Real Madrid's Andriy Lunin, Betis' Rui Silva and the veteran Guaita defending the colours of Celta Vigo.
Moreover, Valencia's recent performances are not very encouraging. In this calendar year (the last 15 games), they should have registered the second-lowest number of points among all league teams. Their main stumbling block is the dysfunctional attack, which has scored only an average of 0.78 goals per game in this period. Alaves also has a very decent defence. Therefore, a draw in this match would not be a big surprise.