Spain or England? The EURO 2024 final will be a battle of polar opposites
Southgate took over from his predecessor Roy Hodgson directly after the 2016 European Championship, where England lost 2-1 to surprise package Iceland in the round of 16. Since then, the national team's conservative style of play has been criticised, especially by their own fans.
The immense quality of the players in the current tournament squad makes us dream of a greater playing style, but Southgate has so far stuck unflinchingly to his mantra - efficiency beats entertainment.
His success proves him right
Despite the rarely inspiring moves and performances, England have reached the final of a European Championship for the second time in a row. Southgate has led the Three Lions to more major tournament finals in four appearances than all previous England coaches in 23 attempts at World Cups and European Championships combined (once, the 1966 World Cup title).
Furthermore, only one England coach in the post-war era has a better points average than Southgate (2.05 in at least 50 games). Sir Alf Ramsey scored 2.07 points per international match between 1963 and 1974.
A good horse only jumps as high as it has to. At least under Southgate, the English hardly ever put a foot wrong and maintain a consistently high tactical and physical level. With this recipe for success, England have remained unbeaten in all 13 European Championship matches so far under their current national coach excluding penalty shoot-outs (8 wins, 5 draws) - a coaching record at European Championships.
A change of favourites
On Sunday, Spain and England will meet for the third time at a European Championship.
England won 2-1 in the group stage in 1980 and 4-2 on penalties in the quarter-finals in 1996 after a 0-0 draw. Of the last 14 competitive matches against the Three Lions, however, the Spaniards have only lost four (7 wins, 3 draws), after previously losing seven times in a row to England.
Spain have also won their last three finals at major tournaments: the 2008 and 2012 European Championships and the 2010 World Cup. Never before has a European team won four finals in a row at World Cups and European Championships. With their fourth European Championship title in total (after 1964, 2008 and 2012), they would become the sole European Championship record winner.
Before the tournament, England were seen by fans as clear title contenders, unlike Spain. However, the wind has changed during the course of this European Championship.
Before the tournament, the Opta Supercomputer gave England the highest probability of all nations to become European champions, at 19.9%, while Spain came in at 9.6% (4th place in the ranking behind England, France with 19.1% and Germany with 12.4%). Ahead of the final, the Opta Supercomputer now sees Spain with a slight advantage (60%, England 40%).
Chance of a historic record
The results in this tournament have had a major influence on the calculations. Spain are the first team ever to celebrate six wins (after 90 or 120 minutes) in a row at a European Championship and could also become the first European nation to win all seven out of seven matches at a major tournament (World Cup/European Championship) without winning a penalty shoot-out.
Although France, for example, also won all of their matches at the 1984 European Championship, the tournament format at the time meant that they only won a total of five games.
Offensive flexibility and directness
Spain have not only been convincing in terms of results, but also in the way in which goals have been scored.
There is a clear departure from the tiki-taka that has helped La Roja to be so successful in the past. While Spain were long known for their dominant short passing game in the opposition penalty area, the players under Luis de la Fuente are much more flexible and direct.
In the current tournament, Spain are still high up the table with an average of 57% possession - but "only" in fourth place behind England (58%), Germany (63%) and Portugal (66%). If you compare the ball possession figures with those of previous Spanish national teams, the change becomes even clearer.
At the 2022 World Cup, Spain set a record of 77% possession for a team at a major tournament final since detailed data has been collected (World Cup since 1966, European Championship since 1980). During this period, Spain achieved a higher average possession percentage at 10 World Cups and European Championships than at EURO 2024.
Although the focus is still on attacking possession football, the Spaniards are implementing this more individually and purposefully than in the tiki-taka era. In the last European Championship title win in 2012, two players, Andres Iniesta and David Silva, were deployed out of position on the attacking flanks. The duo often sought out the centre in attack and were ideal for short passes.
Now, with Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, two attackers with completely different dispositions are playing on the wings. They keep their position wider and more often look for offensive 1-on-1 situations in order to be able to cross or shoot themselves.
Among the players with the most dribbles at this European Championship, Williams (2nd) and Yamal (5th) are two Spaniards in the top five. Although neither of them have the success rate of the absolute elite wingers, they certainly make up for this.
The attacking trio is completed by Dani Olmo, who has the most direct goal contributions of any player at this European Championship, ahead of Yamal and Williams. Olmo also has the best success rate in 1-vs-1 (70%) duels of all players at this European Championship who dribbled at least as often as him (20 times).
Most of Spain's attacking endeavours at this European Championship have been down their own left flank. Most recently in the match against France, Nico Williams and his full-back Marc Cucurella were so active that 58.7% of La Roja's attacks came from their side.
This had the positive side effect that the French defence often had to shift to their right side, which meant more space for Yamal on Spain's own right flank.
Yamal following in the footsteps of Pele
Yamal became the youngest goalscorer (16 years, 362 days) at World and European Championships with his remarkable goal in the semi-final to equalise. He utilised the space available to cut inside and finish with his left foot.
With his new record, the Spaniard supplanted the legendary Brazilian Pele, who was 17 years and 239 days old at the 1958 World Cup against Wales, and will break another record if he plays in the final.
Yamal celebrates his 17th birthday on the day before the final, which would make him the youngest player ever to play in a World Cup or European Championship final at 17 years and one day old (previously Pele, at 17 years and 249 days, played in the final of the 1958 World Cup).
Although Cody Gakpo (1.9) from the Netherlands has collected the most expected assists in the tournament so far, he is immediately followed by Nico Williams and Yamal (1.8 each). The young Barcelona winger has also been directly involved in 13 shots after dribbling (6 shots, 7 assists), which is at least three more than any other player at this tournament.
His three assists are the current joint-best in the tournament together with Xavi Simons. If he were to score another goal, Yamal would be the first Spaniard to have four assists in a European Championship.
Buoyed by their fleet-footed, courageous attacking talents, the Spaniards have scored 13 goals at EURO 2024 so far - only France in 1984 (14) have ever scored more at a European Championship.
England's defence is their trump card
Although the Three Lions have a fundamentally different style of play to the Spaniards and have not been completely convincing in every game of this knockout phase, they are rightly in the final of this European Championship after a good semi-final performance.
They also secured their progress late on. Ollie Watkins' goal after 89:59 minutes was the latest winner in a semi-final at the World or European Championships in regular time.
However, the basis for England's current success can be found at the other end of the pitch, where Gareth Southgate has formed a solid defence even though key former defensive stalwarts such as Harry Maguire and Ben Chilwell had to miss out through injury. Luke Shaw was also only just fit enough to be selected just before the start of the tournament.
England have conceded just 0.88 expected goals per game so far at EURO 2024, the fourth-best figure of all teams at this European Championship behind France with 0.87, Serbia with 0.86 and Belgium with 0.85. On average, every opponent's shot was worth just 0.09 xG, which is a sign of the few promising shooting opportunities that England allowed.
England have also conceded just 13 goals in their last 20 international matches and have only conceded more than once in a 2-2 draw with Belgium in a friendly in March. Now the England defence of Kyle Walker, John Stones and Marc Guehi will face another rigorous challenge after the semi-final clash with the Netherlands.
Under pressure
Spain, who have exerted the most pressure on their opponents in the attacking third at the 2024 European Championship (890 times), will naturally try to disrupt England's build-up play consistently. However, England have also showed that they can deal with such pressure.
England defensive midfielder Declan Rice, another cornerstone of the defence, has shown himself to be exceptionally resistant to pressing. He has had more ball actions (300) and more successful passes (236) under high pressure than any other player at EURO 2024.
Last but not least, England will once again rely on the accuracy of their captain, Harry Kane. The striker once again proved his already undoubted finishing ability in his first Bundesliga season with Bayern Munich (top scorer with 36 goals in 32 appearances) and shows no sign of letting up at this European Championship. His three goals are the joint-best in the current tournament (with five other players).
Most recently in the semi-final against the Netherlands, Kane scored from the penalty spot to make it 1-1. It was his sixth goal in the knockout stages of the European Championships. That's more than any other player in the history of the competition.
It was also Kane's ninth goal in the knockout stages of World Cups and European Championships overall - the most of any European player.
Southgate has several options
When England need him, Kane is reliably on hand and, in an emergency, top-class substitutes such as Ollie Watkins, Cole Palmer or penalty specialist Ivan Toney come off the bench. The latter three scored a combined 71 goals (45 goals, 26 assists) in the last Premier League season, so Southgate always has options if his regular attacking lineup struggles.
This is probably also the reason why England conceded the first goal in all three games in the knockout phase at EURO 2024, but still progressed to the next round. England are unbeaten in their last six EURO matches, in which they initially trailed (5 wins, 1 draw). No team has won more such matches in the history of the competition.
As tournaments often shape the playing styles of club coaches, it will be interesting to see which approach will prevail at this European Championship - England's controlled defence or Spain's furious attack.