Key analysis: World Cup finalists Croatia might have a hard time in the group
Their historic journey to the 2018 World Cup final was preceded by a belated firing of coach Ante Čačić just before the last qualifier and team’s talisman Luka Modrić getting accused of a false testimony at the Zdravko Mamić trial, forever a big stain on his legacy in the eyes of general public. Now, Croatia seem to be in fairly good spirits as defending World Cup finalists and fresh Nations League Top 4 participants. Is that a bad omen?
Unbeaten in 5 straight despite facing their World Cup Nemesis France and 2020 Euro semifinalists from Denmark 4 times, an ageing ‘Vatreni’ core is ready for what could well be a swan song of a great generation. With an improved depth, boosted confidence and pretty much a clean health bill following a protracted Marcelo Brozović recovery from a muscle injury, Croatia look more of a threat while remaining a possession-heavy, short-passing side.
Coach Zlatko Dalić, a man of strong faith, has spent a decent chunk of his World Cup preparation on a 130-kilometer-long pilgrimage from his hometown of Livno to a Catholic sanctuary in Međugorje. Can his boys in checkered jerseys go the distance this time, too?
Strengths
It’d be easy to forget now that in the pandemic era, Croatia made for possibly the worst defensive side among Europe’s elite. Between their trip to the World Cup final and last summer, no 2020 Euro participant had averaged more goals conceded than Croatia (1,62 per competitive game), with a disastrous maiden Nations League campaign largely at fault. That no longer appears to be an issue, with ‘Vatreni’ holding Denmark and France to a combined 2,73 expected goals against in the 4 Nations League battles, not once going over 1 xGA. No other team in League A managed to limit their opponents to low-quality shooting opportunities quite as well as Croatia (0,081 xGA per shot against; the only side to stay below the 0,1 xGA line), with their supreme shot-blocking ability very much taking care of the rest (Croatia’s 24 blocks were second to only Wales’ 28, five ahead of Denmark and Czechia).
At the other side of the pitch, the two cherished veterans are still going strong. They no longer carry as much workload as they used to, but that doesn’t mean they don’t put in clutch performances anymore. Modrić saved his two best efforts for last, dominating Denmark and Austria in September soon after turning 37 to propel Croatia into the Final Four. He alone cracked the opponent’s penalty area from open play 13 times in 2022 UNL, almost doubling the team’s runner-up’s total (Lovro Majer with 7), and contributed with 5 smart passes beaking the lines. Perišić, meanwhile, skipped most of the UNL campaign, but was Croatia’s go-to man for much of the World Cup qualifiers. Turning 34 in February, this could be his last chance to add to a truly phenomenal total of 9 major tournament strikes (in 14 starts).
Weaknesses
On the face of it, Croatia look to be a well-balanced team capable of scoring just enough and barely conceding. Dig a little deeper, however, and you pass by some issues bubbling through. First of all, 8 goals scored on the way to topping their tough UNL group look alright, but they couldn’t put even one past France without the benefit of a pair of penalties and twice they took advantage of some set piece chaos. That’s half of the total mostly down to randomness. To that end, the troublesome Austria opener (0:3 loss) was the only UNL game in which all kinds of set pieces did not constitute over ¾ of xGF generated by Croatia. That’s some staggering reliance on dead ball situations, owing much to Dalić’s lack of gameplan beyond “give the ball to maestro Modrić and see what ensues”. Croatia are not hard to read, leading almost half of all their build-up down the left-hand side post-2020 Euro (47,5%).
For a team with some of the best progressive passers in Europe’s Top 5 leagues in Brozović, Kovačić and Modrić, the lack of cutting edge down the middle is especially disappointing. That’s very much what cost them against Austria, too, with all 3 of their shots on target occurring on the perimeter and barely threatening the goalkeeper cruising to a clean sheet.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on Croatia in this particular group, with all of Belgium (most notably), Morocco and Canada deploying a 3-at-the-back formation in recent matches and Croatia struggling mightily against Austria’s 3-5-2 in Nations League. The last-place Austria actually served up two of only three post-Euros occasions on which Croatia lost an xG battle.
Ideal XI
Livaković - J. Juranović, M. Erlić, J. Gvardiol, B. Sosa - L. Modrić, M. Brozović, M. Kovačić - M. Pašalić, A. Kramarić, I. Perišić
This is a team very much built around the stable central midfield trio, even though unlocking Kovačić remains a challenge for Dalić. After his introduction at left back last summer, the coveted Joško Gvardiol looks set to feature at the heart of defence, otherwise short on Šime Vrsaljko who was forced into international retirement by numerous injuries in late August.
In goal, the situation looks a bit blurry thanks to a couple of assured performances by Osijek’s Ivica Ivušić, the most notable one coming in a clean sheet effort in France. On the right flank, Lovro Majer of Rennes is the wild card. Either way, it’s going to be a false right-wing tucking inside after Rebić’s breakdown robbed Dalić of more of an outlet on the wing.
What persists is the absence of a bonafide sniper up top. Ahead of 2020 Euro, Andrej Kramarić was the flavour of the week, having posted underlying numbers akin to those of Robert Lewandowski in 2020/21 Bundesliga. Now he’s nowhere close to those lofty goalscoring heights and so the immense pressure on Dalić finding a suitable role for the Hoffenheim star (which, by the player’s own admission, is not the centre forward) has been lifted. Kramarić got every chance to run away with the starting gig in the qualifiers but decidedly didn’t (apart from running riot against lowly Malta), thus rotating neatly with Ante Budimir in UNL where he mustered just 1 measly shot from inside the box and 1 shot assist in 250 mins of action. Don’t be surprised if Marko Livaja, last season’s MVP in Croatia with 32 goals and a point-per-game business card for Hajduk, jumps over both at some point.
Hottest contest
The aforementioned sterling defensive results look only more impressive when you consider Dalić has sorted through nine different centre-back tandems in 13 competitive games since the Euros. Initially, Dalić seemed determined to stick with Lovren and Domagoj Vida, but the two veterans have largely proven to be on a clear downturn at this point. Vida is most certainly done after getting picked apart by France in June, but the former is, of course, still a highly ambitious Zenit captain who won’t settle for the bench easily. That said, both Martin Erlić (24) and Josip Šutalo (22) announced themselves on the stage big time as a makeshift pairing on the road to France and Denmark, giving major headaches to Dalić who very much can’t afford to bench both Lovren and Gvardiol. Šutalo, the best CB in the country in 2021/22 per Wyscout Index, may have the inside track of the two based on current form.
Seeing that Dalić shall look to complement Gvardiol’s unique skillset of a CB capable of both carrying and passing the ball on long distance, thus contributing a lot of shot-creating actions, he might however prefer the more rudimentary option next to him in Erlić, on his day a wonderful shot-blocker, clearance machine and a looming attacking set piece threat. Šutalo, meanwhile, is more of a poor man’s Gvardiol, providing a rather expansive presence.
Prediction
Croatia will have a hard time figuring out a well-structured trio of opponents, especially finding it hard to score while recording sky-high percentages of ball possession. The group serves potentially brutal mismatches in wide areas, with Canada’s MVP Alphonso Davies coming up against Juranović and a rotating cast of right wingers and another marauding fullback in Achraf Hakimi about to face a left back largely unproven on this stage. In the end, the vice-champions surprisingly bow out in the group stages after a goalless draw with Morocco, a frustrating 1:1 tie with Canada and an ultimate loss to a free-flowing Belgium.