NFL AFC Preview: Who will break the hegemony of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2024?
It is the start of 18 weeks in a row of beautiful touchdowns, hard tackles, dreams coming true and dreams falling apart. It's never boring in the NFL, especially in the AFC, where many teams are vying for a spot in the coveted grand final on February 9th 2025 in New Orleans.
The favourite in the AFC
The Kansas City Chiefs are currently a dynasty in the NFL. With quarterback Patrick Mahomes on the field and head coach Andy Reid beside him, the Missouri team is seemingly unbeatable. During the regular season, they still sometimes struggle to get going, but when the awards are distributed, Mahomes and his teammates are at their best. They go on the hunt for their third Super Bowl win in a row. If they succeed, they will be performing something unique.
This sets the bar extremely high in Kansas City, because anything less than another Vince Lombardi Trophy will be a disappointment. The team's rise is remarkable. Before the franchise won their first title against the San Francisco 49ers in 2019, the trophy case sat locked for 50 years. However, the arrival of Mahomes changed everything. He exceeded all expectations and with his buddy Travis Kelce, generally considered the best tight end in the league, he reigns supreme in the NFL.
Kelce, the boyfriend of popstar Taylor Swift, is the 'star receiver' of the offense, which is a direct indication that the team does not have a true top receiver on their roster. During free agency, Kansas City acquired 'Hollywood' Brown - a former player of the Ravens and in the NFL Draft they chose WR Xavier Worthy in the first round. Brown is suffering from a shoulder injury and is a doubt for the game in round one against his former employer.
As long as Mahomes distributes and throws the balls and Reid cobbles together the playbook, the Chiefs are the big favourite in the NFL. The last five years show that. They are results that don't lie. With the new acquisitions on offense, which should distract some attention from Kelce, there is no reason to doubt this team. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have bought in reinforcements to better stop the 'run', though it remains to be seen whether the linebackers in particular can take their game to the next level. It is a rare question mark for a franchise that impressively looks down on the rest of the league in a big way.
The competition in the AFC
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens were the big challenger last year and it surprised few that the 'Championship Game' in the AFC conference went between quarterback Jackson's team and the Chiefs. The Ravens had home-field advantage and still failed to win. Head coach John Harbaugh and his fellow coaches adjusted too much and forgot what they were good at. It led to a frustrating night for the Ravens, who are still chasing a Super Bowl win.
QB Jackson now has two MVPs behind him but would trade them for a Vince Lombardi Trophy in no time. It is up to him and Harbaugh to show they have learned from last season and immediately make the Chiefs feel they do now rely on their own qualities. That can be done with running back Derrick Henry, who came over from the Tennessee Titans. He seems made for Baltimore's attack and every NFL fan is looking forward to what he will bring. His arrival could be the missing piece of the puzzle to do lift this team to a Super Bowl this year. Some big names also left, such as running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, but an elite QB should be able to return to a high level even with the current players.
The defence also suffered losses. Especially edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney and linebacker Patrick Queen, who will both be missed with the latter leaving for arch-rival Pittsburgh Steelers. However, the 'front-seven' still looks dangerous, with the big man being Justin Madubuike, who signed a $98 million contract. The safety duo of Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams is potentially one of the best in the league. The Ravens are a top team with a quarterback who makes spectators sit on the edge of their seats.
The 2023 season went out like a candle for the Bengals. After quarterback Joe Burrow's wrist injury, all aspirations could be binned and Cincinnati finished last in the strong AFC North, which also includes the Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Steelers. The division is considered the strongest in the NFL and without a fit QB, you are basically hopeless. However, Burrow is fit again, although it is always a matter of waiting to see if there is any rust in the body. The 27-year-old quarterback has obviously already proven himself. The team made it to the Super Bowl in the 2021 season but lost to the Los Angeles Rams in it. Chancers for another grand final are still there.
Partly because of their fourth place in the division, the Bengals' game schedule is a lot friendlier than last year. On offence, the concerns are not so great, the defence struggled quite a bit last year. That's why Geno Stone - last season's standout with the Ravens - and Vonn Bell came in to boost the defence. That is led by Lou Anarumo for the sixth year in a row and head coach Zac Taylor has also been with the Bengals for six seasons. Stability characterises Cincinnati and with one of the best quarterbacks in the league, coupled with spectacular receiver Ja'Marr Chase, they are a bump for any team, including the Chiefs and Ravens.
The Bills lost to the Chiefs by three points in the playoffs last season and, like the Ravens, missed a chance to beat the Super Bowl champion in their own stadium. With quarterback Josh Allen knocking on the door for years, the team has been yearning for a spot in the grand final. In the 1990s, the team made the Super Bowl four times in a row and they lost every time. It still sticks with the Bills, until the moment they put it right. They can do that with Allen, but the foundation of a strong team is slowly crumbling.
Allen is still in his prime and, with four league titles in a row, everyone takes the Bills seriously. As with many teams, the pause button has to be pressed every now and then, and 2024 is that moment for general manager Brandon Beane. He needed to get his salary cap in order, so he traded wide receiver Stefon Diggs and let Gabe Davis go. Younger players came in return for much less money. The much-touted secondary also fell apart, centre Mitch Morse did not return and, to make matters worse, linebacker Matt Milano was badly injured. Allen can pull off plenty of wins with his challenging play, but for the rest, question marks pop up everywhere and it is questionable whether the Bills can compete with the best this year.
The Houston Texans were the big surprise in the NFL last season. The team of rookie head coach DeMeco Ryan, former player of the franchise, missed out on the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but that earned their QB C.J. Stroud, who along with several other sudden standouts transformed Houston from flop to top in one year. The Ravens were still just a little too high in the playoffs, but the Texans issued a win warning that could not be ignored. Stroud became NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and including the playoffs, he finished 10-7 as a starter. He threw for over 4,000 yards and 23 touchdowns with just five interceptions.
These are impressive numbers for a player who is just coming to the top level. Given his statistics, then, comparisons with former top players like Joe Montana and Tom Brady were quick to be made. To further help Stroud, general manager Nick Caserio brought in wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who along with Nico Collins and Tank Dell make up an impressive WR room. The offensive line was strengthened to give running back Joe Mixon a chance and the defence will benefit from the arrival of defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry. The Texans seem all set for a top attack. A serious player has signed up in the AFC and they have no plans to leave for now.
The sub-top
It's becoming an annoying mantra for Miami Dolphins fans, but we can't ignore it in this preview either: the Dolphins haven't won a playoff game since 2000. Not even the arrival of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in 2020 changed that. He was selected to the Pro Bowl last year but was hopeless against the Chiefs in an ice-cold Kansas City. As a result, there is a whole generation of fans who don't know how sweet a postseason win tastes. Despite the lack of success, Tua got his big contract. With that, the pressure increases even more. With offensive weapons like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Odell Beckham Jr. the team should at least be able to mount an attack on reigning division champion Buffalo Bills.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns' roster is bursting with talent and quality. For a long time, Cleveland was the laughingstock of the NFL, reaching the playoffs only once between 1994 and 2019 - that was back in 2002. However, with sound policy and stability in the coaching department, the Browns are a force to be reckoned with. The real star of the team plays on defence, in a sense Myles Garrett is the team's quarterback.
So, on that side of the ball, things are fine. The big question mark is the actual quarterback: Deshaun Watson. He got embroiled in a big scandal - he allegedly assaulted more than 20 masseuses. Still, the Browns were persuaded to give him a mega-contract. Restructuring has since taken a bite out of that, but so far, the former star player of the Texans is not worth his money. It is all or nothing for the now 28-year-old three-time Pro Bowler. If he reaches his old level, the Browns are contenders for both the division title in the AFC North and a deep playoff run.
The Jets have a talented roster, but it is also led by the most controversial quarterback in the NFL: Aaron Rodgers. The veteran is not averse to a conspiracy theory and likes to throw it over the fence. The now 40-year-old QB was badly injured after a few plays in last season's opening game and only now returns. With him, the Jets think they have someone who can lead them to a Super Bowl, but first, let New York make it to the playoffs again. The last time was in 2010, making them the team with the longest playoff drought.
Why do we rank them just below the top anyway? Rodgers has the Super Bowl ceiling and the defence was the reason for last year's seven wins. They have an elite cornerback in Sauce Gardner, a great nickel corner in Michael Carter II and excellent safety Chuck Clark returns from injury. The potential is there, but the confidence still needs to be built.
Teams with upside
Pittsburgh Steelers
Under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have not had a losing record since 2007. Moreover, the team won a Super Bowl in 2008 under his leadership. Not only does that seem like a long time ago, it is. There are still teams dreaming of a Vince Lombardi Trophy, but for a leading team like Pittsburgh, new success takes too long. The team hasn't won a playoff game in seven years without being bad.
The competition is stupidly better and with that, the Steelers are stuck in their own vacuum. Can former Super Bowl winner Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, deemed not good enough with the Chicago Bears, can change the deadlock? The 2024 Steelers are a typical example of first seeing and then believing.
The Jaguars seemed to be on high speed on their way to the playoffs and a division title in the AFC South last year, but completely collapsed at the end, and with the finish line in sight, they were outdone by the Texans. With that, there was finally drama in the division again and it was mouth-watering for the neutral fan. It does mean the Jaguars have to reinvent themselves.
They have committed to quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who on the face of it has everything it takes to be a successful player in the NFL, but has had too many so close, yet so far moments in his career. It does characterise the Florida-based franchise a bit. They have never been in the Super Bowl and a lot has to fall their way in 2024 to reach the top stage this year.
Too many question marks
Anyone listening closely can still hear the cry of dismay when five years ago quarterback Andrew Luck retired just before the 2019 season. He was physically and mentally broken and with that, a multi-year plan could go into the fireplace. Last year, the Colts hoped to have brought new hope to Lucas Oil Stadium with quarterback Anthony Richardson - who was chosen as the number four pick.
However, he was quickly injured and he was without the help of running back Jonathan Taylor. Now that both players are fit again, the team is very cautiously daring to look upwards again, but there they see a large group of teams that are doing better at the moment. 2024 is the year to step up, develop Richardson and crawl out of the margins of the NFL.
We can't imagine an NFL without the Las Vegas Raiders, but when you've only played three seasons in this century in which you've won more than 10 games you also become a bit forgotten. After losing the Super Bowl in 2002 - to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers - two wildcard defeats are the particularly meagre legacy of a team that has yet to reap any of the benefits of moving from Oakland to Las Vegas. There is a beautiful stadium in the desert, but it also contains an empty trophy case.
The Raiders are showing signs of recovery under new head coach Antonio Pierce and with Maxx Crosby they have one of the best defenders in the league, but without a big name at quarterback, it could just be another grey season. Too good to finish bottom, not good enough to compete with the big boys.
Two years ago, Russell Wilson was transported from Seattle to Denver with much fanfare, but it turned into one of the biggest failures in NFL history. After a dramatic first year, where misfortune splashed off, a reasonable 2023 followed, but the suffering was already done. Things didn't work out and so Wilson now plays in Pittsburgh, while his salary is actually paid by the Broncos.
So the team went into the NFL Draft for a new quarterback. Bo Nix is making a fine impression so far, and behind a strong offensive line, he will get his chance to shine right away. Starting in Seattle, where the Broncos' woes began. And in week two, the Steelers come to Denver with Wilson. Only the NFL can come up with something like that.
Los Angeles Chargers
Or would it be better to write the Baltimore Chargers? Jim Harbaugh is the new head coach and that's the brother of John... indeed... the Ravens' head coach. New general manager Joe Hortiz is from Baltimore, and offensive coordinator Greg Roman held his position between 2019 and 2022 in Baltimore.
Key two running backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins were in Baltimore last year and Bradley Bozeman, Hayden Hurst and Tony Jefferson also have a history in Charm City. It can be the strength, but also the pitfall, of a franchise that has been bobbing around in the NFL's mid-table for too long. Either way, the helm is completely changed and then it can go two ways: towards a calm sea or full into a new storm.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans have undergone a massive transformation in one summer. After two seasons full of frustrating defeats, an endless list of injuries, internal strife and a mediocre attack, it is time for a blank page, on which Tennessee is eager to chalk up new milestones. Coach Mike Vrabel, running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Ryan Tannehill are no more. Nashville audiences can, however, look forward to wide receiver Calvin Ridley and cornerback L'Jarius Sneed - two big names.
A little more unfamiliar is the new coach: Brian Callahan, who comes over from the Bengals, where he was the play-calling offensive coordinator. Everything is different with the Titans and that makes them unpredictable. The biggest question mark is quarterback Will Levis who didn't average one touchdown pass per game last year. The AFC South is not the strongest division in the NFL, but even in this, it is questionable whether the Titans will come close to a wildcard.
The Bill Belichick era is over and it took too long for the legendary coach to follow the example of 'his' quarterback Tom Brady: leave. What is left behind is a ship that is sinking and needs to be kept afloat. The remedy is a complete rebuild with a new quarterback, chosen with the number three pick: Drake Maye. However, he is not the captain of the ship right away.
New coach Jerod Mayo, who learnt the trade both as a player and coach under Belichick brings his pupil into the side and starts with Jacoby Brissett as quarterback. Expectations are low not only because of this. There is too little consistency and talent to box in the ring. Chances are New England will be the first team to get knocked out during the upcoming season.